The far-right Rassemblement National (National Rally) Party continues to grow in France, threatening to topple the current government, led by centrist François Bayrou, and preparing for the next presidential election.

David Broder, an political analyst who publishes on far-right movements in Europe, has written a commentary on the current situation in France, published in The New York Times.

Broder argues that “The [Rassemblement National] party is often stereotyped as a protest vote for left-behind industrial workers, but its appeal is much broader. While the party still trails the left among the very lowest paid, its electoral support has in recent years stretched deep into the middle class. Given that Ms. Le Pen inherited the leadership from her multimillionaire father, the party might not seem like an ideal champion of meritocracy. Yet this promise, to restore the value of individual endeavor, is its pitch today.”

According to Broder, “Ms. Le Pen is often cast as a defender of the old French social model, and it’s true that her party opposed Mr. Macron’s raise of the retirement age. Yet she takes a far more ambiguous position on welfare provision generally, as her preference for a pension system more dependent on individual employees’ contributions shows. Her party channels the dissatisfaction of many late-career employees forced to work longer, to be sure, but also that of younger voters skeptical about paying into a system that might never reward them. By the same balancing logic, the party tends to oppose budget cuts while standing against tax rises for consumers and households.”

“The party’s signature move is to cast ethnic minorities, immigrants and the undeserving poor as a special drain on resources. Ms. Le Pen’s supporters are galvanized by fear of such populations, according to researchers such as Félicien Faury and Violaine Girard, yet — interestingly — they do not favor broad welfare support, even for white people. Rather, they increasingly identify with values of self-reliance and homeownership. This is less honey-eyed nostalgia for the postwar golden era than a 21st-century expression of individual autonomy. It demands a tough call to order, though always for someone else.”

French historians have been monitoring the rise of the Front National, the forerunner of the Rassemblement National, and far-right politics in France for several decades. Only now does it seem that the far-right movement might actually be poised to take power in France.

David Broder, “France is in a Deep, Deep Hole,” The New York Times (11 February 2025).