Ten days into the Ukraine War, we can begin to assess the Russian offensives in Ukraine on multiple fronts.
Separate Russian offensives are threatening to encircle the major cities of Kyiv and Kharkiv in northern Ukraine, while the Russian forces from Crimea advance in southern Ukraine, and fighting continues in eastern Ukraine. Russian forces have employed airstrikes, missile strikes, and bombardments of strategic sites, government facilities, and urban centers throughout Ukraine.
Countless news reports and social media posts offer real time perspectives on the fighting, but there have also been many documented cases of fake news and false claims. In addition, government agencies and militaries have differing interests that affect war news and information. So, we have to be very careful in assessing news of the ongoing military campaigns.
Assessing military units’ movements and combat is extraordinarily difficult, despite satellite photography and social media video posts. The Institute for the Study of War continues to provide some of the best daily assessments of the military operations. Their maps of military operations are being used by most major news media organizations, a sign of their influence on war reports and strategic analyses. Maps, daily analyses of military operations, and strategic assessments are available at the Institute for the Study of War.
Historians and political scientists are playing a role in deciphering the strategic situation. Here is one example of a Foreign Policy interview with Alexander Motyl, Professor of Political Science at Rutgers University-Newark:
What Putin’s Past Says About Ukraine’s Future A historian speaks on how the Russian president’s history helps explain his current mindset. Mary Yang Foreign Policy
Many news organizations have published opinion pieces and analyses that offer predictions on the course of the war and potential outcomes. This approach is related to military and diplomatic organizations’ practices of “war gaming” scenarios to train for future conflicts. Here is a BBC report on five potential scenarios for the outcome of the Ukraine War:
Ukraine: How might the war end? Five scenarios What are some of the possible scenarios that politicians and military planners are examining? BBC News